What a Smarter Transition Could Look Like
Bangladesh plans to block all unauthorised mobile phones through the NEIR system starting December 2025. While the intention is sound—reducing illegal imports, protecting tax revenue, and supporting local manufacturing—the policy risks significant unintended consequences if implemented overnight.
“When 40–60% of the entire market depends on unofficial phones, a sudden ban becomes an economic shock—not a simple regulation.”
Unofficial phones remain popular because they are far cheaper than official models, which carry import duty, VAT, and additional compliance costs. Millions of students, service workers, and low-income families rely on these lower-priced devices. Thousands of small traders also depend on selling and repairing these phones for their livelihoods.
⚠️ The Immediate Impact of a Sudden Ban
1. Prices will rise sharply
Removing unofficial phones overnight leaves only higher-cost official models. Many low-income users may suddenly find smartphones unaffordable—limiting their access to digital services, education, and mobile finance.
“A sudden ban risks pushing the poorest households offline.”
2. Small traders will face instant unemployment
Retailers and technicians working with limited capital could see their entire stock become worthless in a single day due to IMEI blocking.
3. Overall welfare declines
Higher prices mean fewer phones sold, creating what economists call a deadweight loss—a preventable reduction in economic well-being.
✔️ A Better Path: Tax Reform and Gradual Enforcement
A smarter alternative achieves the same policy goals without harming consumers or traders.
“Lower taxes shift the official supply curve downward, making legal phones cheaper—and reducing the appeal of illegal imports naturally.”
By cutting duties on budget smartphones, the government can lower official prices and narrow the gap with unofficial models. This encourages legal purchases without creating a market shock.
Additional steps include:
- A temporary amnesty to register existing unofficial stock
- Transition support for small traders
- Subsidised or low-cost official phones for low-income users
- Phased enforcement over 12–18 months
This approach still protects revenue and supports local industries—but avoids pushing consumers offline or wiping out thousands of small businesses overnight.
“Sudden bans create disruption. Smart transitions create progress.”
Ref: https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/unauthorised-handsets-be-finally-blocked-december-4022041